The softwood lumber deal with the U.S. has run into roadblocks, which include the mechanics of implementing the complex deal, as well as continuing resistance from some Canadian forest companies.

It's not clear how much resistance there is, but it's expected the deal could be delayed anywhere from a week to a month. The federal government had set Oct. 1 as the deadline for implementing the deal, but has acknowledged that won't happen.

Brink Forest Products owner John Brink, who has supported the seven-year agreement, said Thursday he remains confident the deal will be completed.

"The deal is a done deal -- it will happen," said Brink. "These issues are purely technical."

However, Russ Cameron, president of the Independent Lumber Remanufacturers Association, which has not supported the deal, painted a much more troubling picture of the obstacles.

While he agreed that some of the issues were technical, he said there are forest companies that are refusing to drop their legal cases -- a requirement written into the deal. Cameron also said he doesn't believe Ottawa has the support of companies representing 95 per cent of the tariffs on deposit with the U.S., another written requirement of the deal.

Some of those companies are balking at dropping their lawsuits because they want to see a deal in place before dropping the suits. But others are simply against the deal, said Cameron.

He said there is likely 30 or 40 companies that belong to his association that are not dropping litigation.

One key area that's creating a problem, for example, is an injunction granted to Canadian companies that prevents the more-than-$5 billion in duties from being dispersed. The U.S. has applied to get the injunction removed, but some Canadian companies have applied to keep the injunction in place, noted Cameron.

If the injunction doesn't come off, then the U.S. can't return the tariffs to Canada.

"I think there is the chance of (the deal) going sideways," said Cameron, who said he would welcome that.

He believes the U.S. Court of International Trade would then release its latest ruling, which he believes would call for the U.S. to return all the tariffs to Canada.

Cameron said Canada could then quash the deal and negotiate under better circumstances.

NDP forestry critic Bob Simpson, who has been critic of the deal and the negotiating process, said the latest developments show the continuing split in the industry over the deal. "It's a debacle," said Simpson, a former forest industry executive from Quesnel.

He said the B.C. government has to take some of the blame for that.

B.C.-based industry observer Laurie Cater said the latest machinations are not helping the lumber market.

He said it's been a well-known fact that producers have been shovelling lumber across the U.S. border and storing it. The benefit to producers is that they are paying a lower export measure, a 10.8-per-cent tariff, versus the expected 15-per-cent export tax, and they'll get 80 per cent of the tariff returned.

However, that will put more downward pressure in the U.S. lumber market, where prices are already tumbling because of slumping U.S. housing, said Cater, publisher of Madison's Lumber Reporter.

Cater said while it looks like the deal will be delayed, he doubted it would be scuttled.

However, once the deal is implemented, he said he expects Canadian sawmills will have to temporarily shutdown, curtailing their production.

Under the agreement, Canadian forest companies will have more than $4 billion US in tariffs returned. Another $1 billion would remain in the U.S., half of which would stay in the hands of the American lumber coalition, which launched the trade complaint that resulted in the tariffs.

©Copyright 2006 Prince George Citizen